Here are my final predictions; I reserve the right to change these between now and Tuesday 9am EST, but I don't think I'll do so.

<p><strong>&gt;<a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>

Popular Vote: 52-48 Obama

My map is a lot more conservative than many out there, but I have a gut feeling about FL even though Obama is leading in the polls and most pundits' picks. I did switch over NV in Obama's favor from my last map.

Senate: Dems win in NH, CO, NM, AK, VA, OR, and NC for a total of 58 Senate seats; incumbent party holds all other seats.

Saxby Chambliss will barely get 50% of the vote to beat Jim Martin and avoid a runoff in GA.

House: This is a bit of a shot in the dark, but I'll say the Dems pick up 23 seats.

CA Proposition 8: No squeaks out a victory, protecting gay marriage in CA

I sent in my absentee ballot yesterday (though State only sends out mail twice a week so it went out this morning).  Not sure I mentioned it here before, but since I'm homeless while here in Zambia, I registered to vote at arobmac's so I could vote in Virginia (where I'm probably going to live when I get back anyway).  Arlington County is really on top of things, and mailed their ballot to me in .pdf format.  I just had to print, fill it out, and mail it back, which I had plenty of time to do even with the two-week mail delay in getting things back to the States. 

  

<p><strong>&gt;<a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election and enter to win a $500 prize.</p>

I'm still not sold on the idea of a blue Nevada for some reason, and I've decided that I think Ohio will go for Obama before Florida will, Great Schlep aside.  My map, therefore, is still more conservative than some but has moved quite a bit in the last couple weeks.

I'm going to make a final set of picks the weekend before the election, along with Senate picks and anything else interesting I decide to include.

"...it seems only reasonable and patriotic to hold candidates for high office to high standards. Elitism in this sense is not about educational or class credentials, not about where you went to school or whether you use 'summer' as a verb. It is, rather, about the pursuit of excellence no matter where you started out in life. Jackson, Lincoln, Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan and Clinton were born to ordinary families, but they spent their lives doing extraordinary things, demonstrating an interest in, and a curiosity about, the world around them. This is much less evident in Palin's case."

- Jon Meacham

...to get your picks in for the Electoral Challenge.

The Washington Post has a great feature that allows you to make your own map and post it wherever you'd like. Mine is below, reflecting my view as of today that this will be a very close race.

<p><strong>&gt;<a href="http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/">2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election and enter to win a $500 prize.</p>

My retirement account is NOT effing happy.

Don't forget, today is countdown day 47 for the Electoral Challenge.  Get your picks in soon!!!

I'm a little late in getting this up, but the L.A. Times had a good article about Chuck Todd last month.  I'm holding out hope that Todd will be selected to replace Tim Russert on Meet the Press.

Ok, time to have some fun.  Because the single worst thing about being here in Zambia is that I'm here during the presidential campaign and election, I obsessively follow campaign news via the internet at every given opportunity.  And because I don't talk to my friends enough about politics, I'm going to try something.  Announcing...

THE AMAZING 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CRYSTAL BALL PROJECTION CHALLENGE EXTRAVAGANZA!!!

Here's how it works: each of you (and I expect universal participation) will submit to me, via email, blog comment, or other communication, your predictions for the following:

1. Winner of the 2008 Presidential election
2. Electoral College totals for each candidate
3. Popular vote totals for each candidate

Picks can also include any explanations (state breakdowns, 3rd party impact, justifications for picks, etc.), and if you don't mind also state your personal preferences.  I will keep an updated list and post it periodically.  If you'd like your pick to be anonymous (to everyone besides me), email them to me here and I will keep your identity secret.

JUDGING: The persons who correctly select the winner and gets closest to the EC totals will be the winner.  The popular vote margin will be the tiebreaker.  In the event of identical picks in all 3 categories, I will devise an additional tiebreaker as needed.  I will make a set of predictions as well, but I will not be eligible to win.

PRIZE: The winner will receive a prize that is unique and Zambian, as selected by me.  I pledge that the prize will be as nice as possible, subject to the catch below...

HERE'S THE CATCH: As of today, there are 51 days remaining until Election Day on November 4th.  The day that you log your final set of picks will be noted as your "countdown day," and if you win the value of your prize (measured in U.S. dollars) will match the countdown day on which you make your final choice. 

Therefore, you can change your picks ANYTIME YOU LIKE, but each time you do your potential prize value will decrease.  This will provide an incentive for picks to be made early, and will ensure that picks lodged later in the campaign (when more information is available) of lesser value.

EXAMPLE: If I were making a pick today, it might look like this:

1. Winner- Barack Obama
2. Electoral College totals- Obama 272, McCain 266
3. Popular vote totals- Obama 51%, McCain 48%
4. Picks made official on countdown day 51, so if I were to win, my prize would be worth $51

ASSISTANCE: I have made the categories as simple as possible, so folks can make picks even if they don't follow the campaign as neurotically as I do.  Below are links to a few resources that can help you make your selections if you'd like to do a bit of research:

• FiveThirtyEight.com- provides polling updates and analysis, plus a projection algorithm updated daily
• ElectoralVote.com- provides another projection system using a simpler algorithm
• ElectoralProjection.com- a third projection site, whose owner is conservative (in case you're worried about bias from the liberal owners of the first two)
• RealClearPolitics- provides polling information and links to news and other resources
• Electoral College overview- provides an overview of how the Electoral College works, which can help you in making your prediction for EC totals
• 270towin.com- provides maps showing how each state has voted in past presidential elections to guide your predictions

I will be actively harassing all of you to make picks, so be warned...I'm a madman.  Over and out.

My favorite site for electoral analysis has an interesting (though in no way surprising) overview of Massachusetts' political identity as part of a series they're doing on all 50 states.  Made me all nostalgic and shit...

A huge thank you to umassbluangel for the outstanding care package I received this morning.  I now have enough Splenda to get me through November, plus enough chocolate to make me the most popular white man in Lusaka.  And as luck would have it, I also got my coffeemaker from Amazon and season 1 of Six Feet Under from a Half.com seller today too.  Wahoo!!

Some interesting stuff I read today:

From Chuck Todd: "Joe's Lockdown: Obama campaigns today in Wisconsin, tomorrow in Iowa, Tuesday in Missouri, and Montana on Wednesday -- all without Biden. In short, they won't stump together again until after convention. While that move seems surprising at first glance, think about it this way: The images we saw yesterday of Obama and Biden together in Springfield (with their sleeves rolled up, one wearing a blue tie, the other wearing a red one) will be the only images we'll see of the duo until Thursday. It's all about message and image control -- something the Obama campaign has prided itself on these past 18 months."

More analysis from Nate Silver on the pick here and here.

Background galore on Joe here. (which links to lots more fun stuff)

And lastly, Mike Allen of Politico reports that an unnamed reporter's 9 year old daughter dubbed the ticket BoJo...we're seriously corrupting the nation's youth.

Some interesting (though wholly unsurprising) comments on PEPFAR from European aid groups.  

It  should be noted that the folks quoted in that post are largely criticizing the "abstinence earmark" in PEPFAR.  This required 1/3rd of all prevention funding under PEPFAR be spent on programs to encourage abstinence and fidelity.  This requirement was not included in the new law passed last month to extend the program for 5 more years.  Instead, the Global AIDS Coordinator (the federal official in charge of all global HIV/AIDS activities) must now submit a justification to Congress for any country that spends less than 50% of its sexual prevention funds on programs to encourage abstinence and fidelity.  The term "sexual prevention" excludes programs that prevent transmission of HIV from mother-to-child, blood and injection safety programs, and male circumcision.

The practical effect for the moment is unclear; the lifting of the restriction gives individual countries and the administration in D.C. more flexibility on how to spend funds.  However, a new president could come to office next year, and through his appointees he could still require funds be spent a certain way.  The only "hard" earmarks in the new law require 50% of all funding be spend on care and treatment, and 10% of funding be spent on orphans and vulnerable children infected/affected by HIV/AIDS.  The other 40% is, more or less, able to be spent at the President's and GAC's discretion. 

The American Prospect has a good roundup posted of Obama's top staffers, written by one of their interns.  The summaries themselves are ok, but it's most valuable for the links to more in-depth press pieces on each.  If he's elected, many of the folks on that list will end up in very high-ranking positions in an Obama administration.

If anyone knows of anything similar for McCain, send it my way.  I find it harder to get motivated to read about his staff, but it's equally important at this point.

"Britney sues vagina for divorce."

The President of Zambia died about 4 hours ago at a hotel in Paris.  There's no reason to fear any instability or problems, but here's hoping that the elections and transition to new leadership goes smoothly, as it will likely happen while I'm here.  It should be really interesting to follow, assuming all goes well.

Wish the Zambians luck.

Sorry I haven't posted here at all in the last month; I've been posting more sterile and informative items about my trip at my blog alter ego, but I'm going to try to get back in the swing of posting on both so I can rant and ramble a bit more freely here.  Not that it will make for very interesting reading here, but tough luck.

Not much to say this morning, and I have a lot of work to do today (including planning a dinner for an extremely VI VIP for next week that I'm nervous I'll mess up.)  My note of excitement for the morning is that I got my first package through the diplomatic pouch today.  I have a few more coming, both from stuff I ordered and stuff I needed that outstanding folks at home are sending me.

Today, I got Homicide, The Assault on Reason, and The Gunslinger from Amazon, and right on time.  I am almost out of books, having plowed through a book a week since I've been here.  Very excited.

I am incredibly, incredibly, incredibly lucky...

...and ridiculously fucking tired. But mostly lucky.

A little over a week left. Departure from D.C. tentatively set for next Wednesday the 16th (assuming I can change the ticket), and departure from the U.S. definitely set for next Thursday the 17th.

I leave Atlanta on the 17th at 3:45pm, fly about 8 hours to Dakar, Senegal where I have a quick hour-ish layover before another 8 hours to Johannesburg, South Africa. I land at 4:35pm local time, then have a 2 hour layover before a 2-hour flight to Lusaka, where I'll land at 8:50pm local time (though it will feel like 2pm to me). I haven't yet devised my sleep alteration and/or chemical strategy for dealing with the flight, but I'll be equipped with laptop, extra battery, DVDs, iPod, and books.

If you want to holler at me before I go, give me a call the 16th or 17th before 3. I mentioned before that I'm keeping an alternate blog for the trip here (if you comment there, don't mention my LJ because colleagues will read it and I'd prefer they not read this). I'll try to post there and here as soon as I can get to a computer once I've landed. Wish me luck!